MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECAST
The total superyacht fleet, defined by superyachts over 30m LOA, currently numbers 5,5651 vessels. GYG operates in the 40m+ segment which largely discounts the production sector to focus on the semi-custom and custom vessels with metallic structures, greater operational budgets and more rigorous maintenance programmes. The 40m+ fleet comprises 2,050 superyachts with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% over the next five years, marginally down from 3.5% CAGR for the period 2015-2019. The larger LOA segments of 70-90m and 90m+ are exhibiting the highest growth rates reflecting the continued market trend for larger superyachts.
THE NEW BUILD MARKET
The 40m+ New Build market has exhibited very stable and consistent characteristics over the last five years and output levels are predicted to deliver steady growth of 3.2% CAGR through 2024 equivalent to an average of 75 deliveries per year.
The New Build Order Book for 2020 shows a surfeit of projects in build and scheduled for delivery in 2020 (87 vessels). However this figure is distorted by the tendency of semi-custom builders to part-build vessels and then halt production until a buyer is secured.
As stated above, the 70m+ and 90m+ segments where GYG is most competitive, are growing faster in percentage terms than the smaller LOA segments. This has an exponential effect on the size of the addressable market in terms of the square meterage (m2) and consequently value (€). The estimated market value of the New Build paint market in 2019 was c. €140m and this is forecast to increase to an estimated c. €175m2 by 2022. Whilst Italy is by far the largest producer of superyachts by unitary volume (39% in 2019), the Dutch and German shipyards both hold significant market shares when measured by value with 31% and 14% respectively, compared with Italy’s 30% by value. These comparative market value figures are also influenced by varying rates between regions with the Northern European shipyards generally yielding higher rates per m2 higher than both Italy and Turkey.
The overall market growth of the superyacht fleet correlates to the global increase in the number of billionaires (UHNWI’s) which has risen from 1,011 in 2010 to 2,153 in 20193 and is forecast to reach 2,584 by 2024.
THE REFIT MARKET
The Refit market is driven by the life cycle of the paint system which is typically 4-6 years depending on the usage and cruising patterns of each yacht. The timing of the re-painting is flexible although superyachts must undergo regular maintenance cycles every 5 years to comply with their registry and insurance. Owners typically take the opportunity to undertake repainting work whilst the yacht is out of service for its Refit survey, consequently major paintwork tends to follow a 5-year cycle.
The Refit market is underpinned by approximately 20% of the active fleet typically due for paintwork each year and continues to grow in line with the increasing size of the global superyacht fleet. The estimated total of yachts over 40m that were due for paintwork in 2019 was 3431.
The value of the addressable market of Refit paintwork is estimated to grow slightly faster than the number of projects, due to the increasing size of superyachts within the global fleet. Market estimates suggest that the current annual value of the Refit paint market is c.€233m and will grow to an estimated c.€285m by 2024 (CAGR 3.4%) with the 70m+ and 90m+ segments exhibiting higher growth rates, 5.1% and 7.5% respectively.
1 Source: The Superyacht Agency Intelligence Report for GYGplc Feb 2020. Unless otherwise stated all market estimates and forecasts are sourced from The Superyacht Agency Intelligence Report.
2 Forward forecasts of market value are based on static estimates of 2020 achieveble rates/m2 with no indexing.
3 Source: Forbes.com Feb 2020.
* LOA = Length overall